“We’re approaching the time when us baby-boomers will start naturally dying en masse. Won’t that, in conjunction with the low birth rate, eventually result in an over-supply of housing, and a corresponding crash in home prices?”
~ Jim K.
A generation takes 15-20 years so their natural mortality plays out over 15-20 years, too. And a low birth rate is a moving target – goes up and down over time. But yes, IF we have a declining birth rate for the next 20-30 years it would re-balance the supply story (but that takes a very, very long time to play out). For the next 5-10 years we are deeply under-supplied, especially for new construction of single-family residence.
~ David L. Bahnsen, August 28, 2025
