“Am I correct in believing that when TBG talks about “the market” it generally is the DJIA, not the S&P 500? If yes, I am curious as to why? Is it because TBG Dividend Growth flagship has many of the DJIA in the portfolio (10 today)? Is it a big deal or am I way overthinking it (all indexes are flawed including Russell’s)”?
—Fred H.
The truth is we refer to both, in slightly different contexts. When the “market” is up X number of points on the day, we find that most people relate to the Dow as that daily proxy in point terms. For all the flaws in its price-weighted methodology, I actually find it tracks the real-life market and economy remarkably well. As you astutely point out, it is also more aligned with our own dividend equity portfolio, with some of it overlapping. The S&P 500, with roughly 40% of its weight in technology, is just less reflective of the money we happen to run.
That all said, when we talk about the “market” in terms of underlying themes, or fundamentals, or metrics, we prefer the S&P 500. It is 500 names versus just 30 in the Dow, it is market-cap weighted rather than price weighted, and it is simply a broader and deeper barometer to analyze. So, I suppose the answer is both, and there are slightly different use cases for referencing each. At the end of the day, they are highly correlated, and the more volatility we see, the closer that correlation moves to one. The Dow is blue chip and value oriented, and what gets quoted at the kitchen table in point terms; the S&P 500 is broader, but more growth and technology.