MONDAY – September 14, 2026

Dear Valued Clients and Friends –

The drama of the day did not match the drama of the weekend, but we have a fun Dividend Cafe “Monday version” for you today.

Dividend Cafe on Friday offered reflections on the 25-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks from the vantage point of an investor, an American, and a human being.  The written version is here (my favorite), the video is here, and the podcast is here.

I was reminded of the need for a periodic reminder on Saturday night as I sat at the USC game with someone whom I could tell did not quite understand the cadence of the Dividend Cafe program … Each Monday we do, well, this version (I, David Bahnsen, bringing you a Monday summary of various happenings in markets, public policy, the Fed, energy, housing, and the economy).  Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, we do a “Daily Recap” with something on either my mind or Brian’s mind (commentary/perspective), the answering of a question from a reader, and then a recap summary of market and economic action from that day.  Then, on Friday, I write the long-form commentary that has been the cornerstone of Dividend Cafe for 18 years now (a longer-form article).  This is the M-F program, and I just thought it was worth reiterating …

Off we go …

Market Action

• Markets opened down -150 points and closed down -150 points but saw a zig and a zag in-between
• The Dow closed down -152 points (-0.29%) with the S&P 500 down -0.48% and the Nasdaq down -0.56%

*CNBC, DJIA, September 14, 2026

• The story of the weekend was certainly the self-published letter from Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, asking the AI labs to “slow down” amidst fears of runaway AI forces wreaking havoc on society.  I will have my own ideological take on it in tomorrow’s Capital Record podcast, but in the meantime, we saw some market impact today as Nasdaq futures were pointing down as much as -3% (though by the time markets opened it was nowhere near as bad).  Fears of any interruption to AI development speed are directly correlated to the expectation for massive AI capex that is fueling almost all of this narrative right now.  The overall market impact today was reasonably benign, but the semiconductor space saw a -5.6% drop today.  There is no way to digest, process, know, understand, or anticipate in 24-48 hours what may or may not play out in weeks or months to come as leading AI frontier labs call for regulation, and capital markets potentially re-price their rules of engagement.  What I can say in this first market day since Amodei’s “Jerry Maguire” style letter – is that it’s a more present and measurable risk to the AI investment narrative than it was a few days ago.
• 75% of consumer discretionary sector stocks are at a 20-day low
• The ten-year bond yield closed today at 4.987%, up one basis point on the day (it did pass 5% for a short period intraday)
• Top-performing sectors for the day: Communication Services (+2.79%) and Health Care (+1.35%)
• Bottom-performing sector for the day: Technology (-1.67%)
• When will we start to believe the AI capex story is experiencing vulnerability that is bleeding into the real economy and will be creating broader distress across parts of the stock market?  When credit markets tell us so …  Credit spreads remain benign, and while I believe a credit market catalyst to volatility will come, I do not believe it has come yet.

Public Policy

• Speaking of Anthropic’s warning of AI doom, Democrats held an all-day conference last week with top party strategists and leaders to discuss this very subject of AI and beyond, and their policy response to various concerns and threats.  The topic is generating some degree of bipartisan (strange) bedfellows, and is worth watching after the midterms (when people can be taken more seriously) as to where the political class wants to take some of this.
• Doug Sosnik, a credible and serious political analyst who was a long-time advisor to former President Clinton, published a 10-page report over the weekend predicting a successful midterm result for the Democrats in November, but predicting that pick-ups will be less than some expect due to “structural shifts and long-term trends” that have changed things in the electoral math.

Economic Front

• The August headline CPI rose +0.4% on the month, and core (ex-food and energy) rose +0.3%.  That headline number was in line with expectations, and core was +0.1% more than expected.  Energy prices are up +16.3% on the year, food prices +2.7% on the year, and “food at home” prices up +3.4% on the year.  Health Insurance is up +8.5% on the year.  Airline fares are +23.4%.  Hotel prices +2.9%.  Car repair +5.2%.
• We should also point out: The +5.4% year-over-year PPI number (producer prices) does not bode well for the direction of consumer prices
• Tanker Shipping has jumped over 300% since July, behind the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions.  Shipping lanes are very constrained, and the number of vessels willing to operate in the region is quite low

Housing & Mortgage

• Sales of existing homes declined -2% in August.  Existing-home sales volume is down -1.2% over the last year.
• Those waiting for a dip in some key markets (that had been market leaders) are getting the change they want as it moves from an obvious seller’s market to an obvious buyer’s market, with there basically being a doubling of sellers relative to buyers in each of these markets (and then some, in some cases!!)

Top 10 U.S. Buyer’s Markets

(Data via Redfin)
August 2026 – Ranked by the Percentage Home Sellers Outnumber Buyers

Source:  Creative Planning, Charlie Bilello (@CharlieBilello), September 14, 2026

Federal Reserve

• Expectations in the fed funds rate futures market are now 88% for a rate hike this week (the FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday).  I concur that it is impossible to bet against the futures market the week of the meeting, and yet remain somewhat perplexed as to how this plays out for the Chairman’s relationship with the Treasury Secretary and the President.
• Will a higher fed funds rate flatten the yield curve and bring the long end down?  That is the expectation.  A 10-year at 4.98% and 30-year at 5.35% seem prone to come down anyways, and if the Chairman hikes this week, he certainly believes it would have that effect.  I am watching.

Oil and Energy

• WTI Crude closed at $101.77, up +1.74% on the day.  This comes on top of the +9.4% increase oil saw last week, and now a +76% increase YTD!!
• Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline Friday that was allowing some oil exports despite the Strait of Hormuz’s closure.  A drone attack caused Saudi to feel a precautionary closure was needed, and the end result is another 4 million+ barrels of oil (daily) taken offline (for now).
• A note from Hinds Howard I had forgotten about regarding MLPs and 9/11: They were down -11.2% in the week after the 9/11 attacks, but were back up to pre-9/11 levels in two weeks, and closed 2001 up over +43%.  Midstream energy has never cared much about the rest of the market

On Deck

• The Fed meets tomorrow, and the FOMC releases results (with a Warsh presser) on Wednesday

More to Chew on

• Instagram may not be the best place to get financial advice
• AI companies don’t need government’s permission to “slow down”

Reach out for anything you need, any time, and have a great night!

With regards,

David L. Bahnsen
Chief Investment Officer, Managing Partner

The Bahnsen Group
www.thebahnsengroup.com

The Dividend Cafe features research from S&P, Baird, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and the IRN research platform of FactSet.