DC Today is a daily missive from the Dividend Cafe of The Bahnsen Group. While the Dividend Cafe’s weekly market commentary is meant to be long-form, macroeconomic, and principle-driven, the DC Today’s purpose is to provide a daily synopsis of markets, politics, and current events. It will be short, sweet, and hopefully, informative. Our goal is to bring you the latest and most relevant market information and insights, written only by us. Please feel free to share The DC Today with your friends and family. And of course, we always welcome your feedback as to how we can make it more relevant and practical for you!

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Dear Valued Clients and Friends –

It was another generally positive day in markets, with today marking the 99th consecutive trading day that the S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average. Believe it or not, this has happened many times in history and certainly isn’t even halfway to 1995’s run of 257 (back when I was graduating high school), but it’s impressive nonetheless.

What’s On David’s Mind

As my friends at Strategas Research are prone to do, they inundated me with some market history this morning that adds a lot of color to a particular theme many investors are probably lacking. As the media stays fixated day by day about what the Fed will do and when, despite abundant evidence that, well, it doesn’t matter, a few historical realities seem relevant.

The “average” return in the stock market for the two months before a first-rate cut is +2% (yawn), and the average for the two months after a first-rate cut is -1.5% (bigger yawn).  But in the data set of ten “first” rate cuts, since I was born fifty years ago, there are periods where the market was down -8% and -6% in the sixty days prior, and points where it was up +11% and +12%, so who exactly cares about the “average”?  In the two months after a rate cut, we have -25% periods (the golden age of 1974, where, despite my birth, the best thing that happened in the whole world that year was USC football) and +17% periods.

In short, markets sometimes go up a lot and down a lot and up a little and down a little before a rate cut and after a rate cut.  Okay, now go make investment decisions around that airtight historical record.  =)

Market Action

*CNBC, DJIA, March 27th, 2024

Dow: +478 points (1.22%)
S&P: +.86%
Nasdaq: +.51%
10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.19% (-4 basis points)
Top-performing sector: Utilities (+2.75%)
Bottom-performing sector: Communication Services (+.11%)
WTI Crude Oil: $81.70/barrel (+.10%)

Key Economic Point of the Day 

  • The cargo ship Dali crashed into the Scott Key bridge in Baltimore yesterday and, as of today, tragically has claimed six people and closed the port of Baltimore until further notice.

Ask Brian

“Hi Brian,  I have friends who are interested in learning more about your approach to market investment and wealth management. They are both doctors. Can you set up a meeting with them to go over everything that you do for your clients? Also, what is the minimum balance that they would need to bring into the Bahnsen Group to start a portfolio? Thank you so much!
-E.C.
It’s great to hear from you, and thank you for the introductions. Of course, I am happy to connect with them.  We really do try to NOT set a hard dollar minimum for clients we would take on.  There are $50MM clients that we wouldn’t take on and $1MM clients we would, so it really just comes down to mutual fit.  TBG is best utilized as a holistic advisor for clients quarterbacking A-Z of clients’ financial lives.  Financial planning, estate planning, tax planning, investment management, business consultation, and real estate are a few services offerings that I’ll go through and see what may make the most sense in each of these cases you mentioned.  I am teeing it up this way for you to convey to them that it’s best for me to walk through our entire process and see how we can add the most value overall rather than them looking at TBG solely as an ‘ala carte’ investment manager.

On Deck

  • Tomorrow we have initial jobless claims, pending home sales, and then a revision to Q2 GDP that will grab headlines in the economic calendar.

Send questions any time, and have a great night.

With regards,

Brian T. Szytel
Co-CIO, Senior Managing Director, Partner
bszytel@thebahnsengroup.com

The Bahnsen Group
www.thebahnsengroup.com

The DC Today features research from S&P, Baird, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and the IRN research platform of FactSet.

The Bahnsen Group is registered with Hightower Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC.

This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors.

All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice.

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About the Authors

DAVID L. BAHNSEN

Founder, Managing Partner,
and Chief Investment Officer

He is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, and Fox Business, and is a regular contributor to National Review. David is a founding Trustee for Pacifica Christian High School of Orange County and serves on the Board of Directors for the Acton Institute.

He is the author of several best-selling books including Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (2018), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (2019), and There’s No Free Lunch: 250 Economic Truths (2021).  His newest book, Full-Time: Work and the Meaning of Life, was released in February 2024.

BRIAN T. SZYTEL

SENIOR MANAGING DIRECTOR,
PARTNER

Brian manages lead relationship management, investment strategy, financial and retirement planning, and advanced estate planning strategies for our clients. Brian has a diverse professional background with over 15 years of financial advisory experience including UBS, Smith Barney and most recently at Morgan Stanley where he was promoted to First Vice President.

Brian holds the Certified Financial Planner™, and Accredited Investment Fiduciary™ designations, along with the Series 7 and 66 securities and the California Life and Health Insurance License. Brian received his Bachelor’s degree in Business and Economics from The University of California at Santa Barbara.

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