DC Today is a daily missive from the Dividend Cafe of The Bahnsen Group. While the Dividend Cafe’s weekly market commentary is meant to be long-form, macroeconomic, and principle-driven, the DC Today’s purpose is to provide a daily synopsis of markets, politics, and current events. It will be short, sweet, and hopefully, informative. Our goal is to bring you the latest and most relevant market information and insights, written only by us. Please feel free to share The DC Today with your friends and family. And of course, we always welcome your feedback as to how we can make it more relevant and practical for you!

Dear Valued Clients and Friends –

Covering all the bases each and every day …  And a big letter after market today from Secretary Mnuchin to Fed Chair Powell (see below).

Market Action

  • Futures were flat last night and down modestly early this morning.  The market opened down over 100 points but then zigged and zagged throughout the day, heading higher in the last 90 minutes of trading.  The Dow closed up +44 points on the day, with the S&P 500 up +0.39% and the Nasdaq up +0.87%

*FactSet, DJIA, Nov. 19, 2020

  • One of the things even an Emerging Markets bullish optimist like myself is most surprised by in recent market activity is how EM earnings per share have recovered above and beyond that of the developed markets.  EM has recently surpassed the S&P 500 and left the MSCI EAFE in its dust.  EM Currency as a blended basket is positive on the year (largely thanks to dollar weakness).  Rising commodity prices are helping EM, as is the post-COVID recovery in global manufacturing.  Not all Emerging Markets approaches are created equal, but to the extent, there is such thing as an EM space, it is enjoying extremely favorable conditions right now.

*Strategas Research, Daily Technical Strategy Report, Nov. 19, 2020, p. 1

Top New Stories

  • The weekly jobless claims came in at 742,000, up about 31,000 from last week (breaking a five-week streak of lower claims).  The continuing claims, though, dropped by 429,000, down to 6.37 million, better than expected.
  • Treasury Secretary Mnuchin sent a key letter to the Fed after market today (see Federal Reserve section below)

Economic Front

  • The Philly manufacturing index fell but much less than anticipated for the month.  Inventories were positive for the first time since May, and while new orders fell, that comes from a big spike the month prior.  The forward-looking business outlook is the challenge.

Public Policy

  • Sen. Schumer shared that Sen. McConnell and Speaker Pelosi did agree to sit down together and speak further about a new COVID relief bill.
  • Sally Yates is said to be Joe Biden’s leading candidate for Attorney General.

COVID

  • Now the third vaccine candidate company has come out with positive news, this time the University of Oxford treatment in partnership with AstraZeneca.  Unlike the BioNtech/Pfizer and Moderna results, we do not yet have the comprehensive study and the specific data behind it, but the early announcement in the Lancet medical journal on the preliminary data was hugely positive.  Primarily, it focused on the high efficacy of their single-shot treatment in elderly participants.  We will get the final data and conclusions once there are 53 positive cases in the study, presumably from those receiving a placebo.
  • I think it is very safe to say that any and all efforts by state Governors to impose further restrictions and lockdowns and draconian measures where their positivity rates are as low as they are in New York and California is a very calculated and self-conscious effort to position things in such a way as to ask for more federal fiscal help.  The whole thing is painful to watch where there is an actual empathy for the less privileged.

Housing & Mortgage

  • One of the most significant stories in the country yesterday barely got any attention, and that was the determination by the FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) that Fannie and Freddie should hold $280 billion of capital to protect against losses.  On one hand, this would set the stage for being able to pull them from government conservatorship; on the other hand, they have a long, long way to go (currently at $35 billion in capital).  The only way to accumulate that additional capital is through retained earnings and the sale of new stock to the public.  I expect that the government will continue allowing Fannie and Freddie to retain earnings and accumulate this capital, and hopefully, the FHFA will see this hand-off teed up in a productive manner as we prepare for a new administration.  It is long, long overdue.
  • Existing home sales were 6.85 million in October, higher than last month (+4.3%) and higher than estimates.  The increase applied to all four regions and is nearing the 2005 highs.  Does anyone remember what happened after 2005?

Federal Reserve

  • Secretary Mnuchin sent a letter to Fed Chair Powell after market today, requesting an extension of the Commercial Paper facility, the Money Market Liquidity facility, the Primary Dealer Credit facility, and the PPP Liquidity facility (all emergency vehicles set under the CARES Act as emergency vehicles for the COVID moment).  However, the unused funds in the corporate credit facility, municipal facility, Main Street Lending facility, and TALF (totaling $455 billion in aggregate) were requested to be returned to the Treasury by the end of the year.  In the letter (the link to which I provided above) Secretary Mnuchin shows what spreads were in March compared to what they are now, and makes the inarguable point that these facilities have served their purpose.
  • Christina Lagarde at the European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled rather clearly that additional stimulus and recalibration of monetary policy in the EU is coming at the next December meeting.

Oil and Energy

  • WTI Crude oil closed just above $42/barrel today

On deck

  • Dividend Cafe coming your way tomorrow!
  • I’ll be on Varney/Fox Business as the market opens tomorrow …

Have a wonderful night.  The weekend is drawing closer!

With regards,

David L. Bahnsen
Chief Investment Officer, Managing Partner
dbahnsen@thebahnsengroup.com

The Bahnsen Group
www.thebahnsengroup.com

The DC Today features research from S&P, Baird, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and the IRN research platform of FactSet. those of HighTower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates.

The Bahnsen Group is registered with HighTower Securities, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC, and with HighTower Advisors, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the SEC. Securities are offered through HighTower Securities, LLC; advisory services are offered through HighTower Advisors, LLC.

This is not an offer to buy or sell securities. No investment process is free of risk, and there is no guarantee that the investment process or the investment opportunities referenced herein will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of current or future performance and is not a guarantee. The investment opportunities referenced herein may not be suitable for all investors.

All data and information reference herein are from sources believed to be reliable. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this research is provided as general market commentary, it does not constitute investment advice. The team and HighTower shall not in any way be liable for claims, and make no expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the data and other information, or for statements or errors contained in or omissions from the obtained data and information referenced herein. The data and information are provided as of the date referenced. Such data and information are subject to change without notice.

This document was created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the team and do not represent those of HighTower Advisors, LLC, or any of its affiliates.

About the Author

DAVID L. BAHNSEN

Founder, Managing Partner,
and Chief Investment Officer

David is a frequent guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business and is a regular contributor to National Review and Forbes. David serves on the Board of Directors for the National Review Institute and is a founding Trustee for Pacifica Christian High School of Orange County.

He is the author of the books, Crisis of Responsibility: Our Cultural Addiction to Blame and How You Can Cure It (Post Hill Press), The Case for Dividend Growth: Investing in a Post-Crisis World (Post Hill Press) and his latest, Elizabeth Warren: How Her Presidency Would Destroy the Middle Class and the American Dream (2020).

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