Dear Valued Clients and Friends –
The debt ceiling discussions advanced today though no final deal was struck. The adjectives and nouns across the headlines refer to “fresh urgency,” and “potential default,” and “sensitive phase”.
The Fed seems to be telegraphing a “pause” at the next meeting … The new language being thrown out is whether or not they are “pausing” or “skipping.”
The Artificial Intelligence space is rallying like crazy as one of the good companies that make money reported a huge quarter, which naturally led to a big rally in the bad companies that don’t make money …
One year ago today, the market closed 32,637. Today it closed 32,765 – up 0.39% in one year.
*CNBC, DJIA, May 25, 2023
Dow: -35 points (0.11%)
10-Year Treasury Yield: 3.82% (+10 basis points)
Top-performing sector: Technology (+4.45%)
Bottom-performing sector: Energy (-1.89%)
WTI Crude Oil: $71.93/barrel (-3.24%)
Key Economic Point of the Day
- Initial jobless claims came in at 229,000. well below the 245,000 expected, and even last weeks was revised downwards by 17,000
|“Do you think there is a better (and more real-time) way to get at consumer confidence?”
~ Jarrett L.
|I do not really believe there is a problem with how consumer confidence is measured now. I think the University of Michigan survey and various sentiment metrics are all pretty good. My issue is that I do not think consumer confidence, itself, is a forward-looking thing, regardless of how it is being ascertained. Consumer confidence is inherently backward-looking because I believe human nature is to respond to what just was in our behavior, not what we believe will be. This is heightened when it comes to consumption because we love to spend and buy and consume (especially Americans). And so getting a bonus yesterday means feeling good about spending money today. I do not believe we form our confidence in consumption on what we see happening 6-12 months out. I don’t think most Americans think 6-12 hours out when it comes to such things.|
- Dividend Cafe tomorrow goes right into the issue of 2023 Corporate America’s agenda and what shareholders ought to do when good companies do dumb things.
- In a far more important setting, Forbes asked me and a few others what we thought should happen on the series finale of Succession this weekend.
Send questions any time, and have a great night!
David L. Bahnsen
Chief Investment Officer, Managing Partner
The Bahnsen Group
The DC Today features research from S&P, Baird, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and the IRN research platform of FactSet.