It is a bad time to be a market-timer. But I don't think anyone can time when it is a good time, so maybe I am just repeating myself...
Dividend Cafe provides market perspective rooted in first principles, not the fads of the day. Authored by our Managing Partner, David Bahnsen, it covers a wide array of topics, it doesn’t try to do what it cannot do, and it strives to offer needed perspective not readily available in most financial commentary.
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It is a bad time to be a market-timer. But I don't think anyone can time when it is a good time, so maybe I am just repeating myself...
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We are talking about two different things here. The Fed buys bonds with quantitative easing by crediting cash to the banks excess reserves and moving the bonds from the banks to the Fed’s balance sheet. The asset now belongs to the Fed, the liability belongs to the Treasury Department, and the cash belongs to the bank, but is not in circulation (money supply) as long as it stays in excess reserves. Once it gets loaned out (if it gets loaned out) it becomes part of the M2 money supply. So really, the avenue for “new money creation” is, always and forever, loans from banks. The Fed’s policy tools are meant to influence that, obviously, but the Fed can only impact the “monetary base” (moneys available as excess reserves for lending). Banks create new money when they lend it out. If I deposit funds in a bank, I have just MOVED funds from one place to another. But when a bank LENDS me money from their excess reserves, not from the deposit base, it is NEW money in circulation.
~ David L. Bahnsen – May 9, 2024
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A DST is specific to real estate via the IRS section 1031 exchange and would not be a solution to defer capital gains for your business sale. Section 1031 can be used to exchange like kind property, however, so theoretically there could be a situation where one business interest is exchanged for another, however, its a less appropriate solution for a business owner looking to monetize out of managing a business. Charitable remainder trusts can be utilized where business interest is transferred to the CRT and then sold tax free, with the owner maintaining a stream of income from the trust. This works well for charitably inclined business owners that engage in the process in advance of the sale. An ESOP (employe stock ownership plan) can defer and/or reduce capital gains by selling units of a C-Corp to the plan and this solution works well for business owners who have successors and operators who want to retain ownership and management of the business. There is a fair amount of advance planning needed here, and ultimately the business needs to be solvent enough to afford the debt service on facilitating this transaction. An Opportunity Zone fund solution we have however would be a great solution and you could get a deferral of capital gain taxes by reinvesting the proceeds in an Opportunity Zone and ultimately reduce them after several years of ownership. We have several solutions here based on what you described, and I would encourage you to reach out to us for more details.
~Brian T. Szytel – May 9, 2024
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Indeed, they have. Having fewer active bidders for Canadian oil other than Gulf coast and Mid-Western refineries in the space is what’s caused that anomaly as the article cites, but keep in mind the TMX pipeline alone isn’t going to change the capacity that can come from oil sands in Canada and move through it. Much of that oil is already contracted at prices for a longer contract period. On the margin though, I agree higher prices from West Coast demand would likely benefit those upstream Canadian producers and erode some of those margins downstream.
~Brian T. Szytel – May 8, 2024
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It really depends on the positions that get transferred in, what types of bonds and credits, what maturities and then what that particular client is looking for and what goals we are solving for. Generally, we can often hold some positions that may make sense and reposition the remainder to align better with goals and capture a more dynamic approach in the process. Depending on the account size and client particulars we would look to implement individual bond portfolios for a portion (taxable for IRA’s and likely a combination of tax free municipal for joint and trust accounts). We have mutual fund partners that are best suited via institutional share classes to capture exposures to certain fixed income asset classes that can’t be realistically sourced on an individual level like senior secured loans, high yield corporate and municipal, structured credit etc. This blended approach is often only accomplished through relocating the account to your question.
~Brian T. Szytel – May 8, 2024
In September of 2008 the world’s financial markets were brought to their knees by a debt bubble, the likes of which we had never previously seen. The turmoil in financial markets was severe and Wall Street banks were falling by the wayside daily. In this time period, David Bahnsen was working as a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, responsible for the well-being of his clients. As their anxiety of clients intensified, David began writing a periodic bulletin to them. One bulletin became another, and then another, and all of a sudden, a weekly bulletin was organically born! Well after markets pulled out of the abyss of 2008, the weekly edition continued, evolving into something far more positive than its September of 2008 origins. This commentary distributed by simple email with an ever-growing following morphed into the Dividend Cafe when David and his team launched their own practice in early 2015.
Today, Dividend Cafe is still attempting to do what it was doing in the fall of 2008 – offering truthful perspective that may not be easily found elsewhere. The topics will vary from our dividend growth philosophy, to bedrock investing principles, to the challenges of interventionist monetary policy, to anything else that inspires David in a given week. The underlying objective is the same now as it was when we began – to build trust by telling the truth, not what people want to hear.
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